Weekly Outlook

Base case

Growth moderates, inflation decelerates unevenly, and policy communication stays restrictive but data-dependent.

Scenarios to watch

• Sticky inflation scenario: higher-for-longer rates pressure duration and cyclicals.
• Soft-landing scenario: risk assets hold up, with selective breadth improvement.
• Growth-scare scenario: defensives and quality balance sheets outperform.

Positioning lens

Use asymmetric setups with explicit invalidation points, not all-in directional bets.